- US export data has been released as follows:
- Chicago markets started out with strong buying as discussion over a further fall in US crop condition resumed. Suddenly we are facing a further suggestion that 2017 corn and soybean crops are reducing once again.However, the bulls and the bears appear exhausted by the recent back and forth price action as well as the inconclusive nature of the weather forecasts. Trust in the GFS model is now lower following the failure of rain in IA. Our feeling is that we will see a further reduction in soybean and corn crop condition on Monday in the wake of heat and dryness across the N Plains and W Midwest.
- The German and Polish grain crops are now being downgraded almost daily amid an abundance of rain. Another 1-3.00” of rain has fallen and producer sources report that mature grain crops are standing in saturated soils or ponded water. The concern for grain crop quality is reaching a fever pitch and the forecasts call for additional rain.
- Some 32 million acres of US corn are located in the drought plagued areas of the N Plains and the NW Midwest. Dakota and Iowa crop yield potential is declining rapidly amid short to very short soil moisture. We would argue that Chicago prices need to be rising sharply to reflect the supply loss, but we understand GFS forecasting woes and why traders are reluctant to trust it! Wheat could well now be making its seasonal low.