- Soybeans made gains again yesterday but closed below the session highs. With soybean prices some 30 cents below last week’s highs farmer selling has slowed dramatically and some fund buying has been noted ahead of Friday’s USDA reports. Friday is attracting attention, perhaps at the expense of the weather for a change.
- Corn ended a fraction higher as weather reports suggest that the intensity of ridging and hot weather is not as high as first thought. Warm and dry weather still lies ahead, although it is difficult to say whether the coming ten days is going to add to, or subtract from, yield potential. Argentine corn prices now reflect a discount to US Gulf, and this will doubtless pressure US export potential going forward, and in turn likely limit or cap future rallies.
- US spring wheat continues to rally, making fresh highs again, and a test of $7.00/bu looks to be on the cards. Winter wheat prices followed although not to the same extent, the issue for the US is one of surpluses in major exporting regions. Global cash prices have not fallen, as would be expected in advance of the looming N Hemisphere harvest. Russia, unexpectedly, remains the cheapest origin. StatsCan is scheduled to update their spring wheat acreage forecast Thursday, and if it is lowered, output could well drop to 27-28 may, which compares with last year’s 32 million. Black Sea region heat looks set to last at least for the next ten days and overall it seems higher protein wheat supplies remain under intense pressure. Downside price risk in this class of wheat looks very limited, and it is highly likely that this will add some support to other wheat classes by association.