- Mixed has been the morning with the grains (corn/wheat) weaker while soybean futures are higher in slow volume trade. The market lacks direction and traders are not willing take on new positions amid the choppiness of recent weeks. US farmers are trying to push ahead with the summer row crop harvest while S American weather is far from perfect for planting.
- US farmers won’t sell breaks while end users won’t chase rallies. Chicago remains adrift with the November USDA Crop Report the next big fundamental event. Until then, it is difficult to get overly excited about a net long or short position. We would reiterate our “market chant” of not wanting to sell hard breaks or buy sharp rallies.
- Chicago brokers estimate that funds have bought 2,200 contracts of soybeans and sold 4,800 contracts of corn and 3,600 contracts of Chicago wheat.
- US export inspections for the week ending October 24 were; 15.0 xmv of corn, 57.6 million bu of soybeans, and 19.2 million bu of wheat. The US corn export pace remains extremely disappointing.
- For their respective crop years to date, the US has ,exported just 136.5 million bu of corn (down 206 million or 60%), 296.2 million bu of soybeans (up 16 million or 6%) and 316.5 million bu of wheat (up 73 million or 23%).The US corn export pace to date is the slowest since 2012, the last Midwest drought year when corn values were trading above $7.00/bu. China shipped out 19.7 million bu of soybeans for the week or 34% of the US weekly total.
- FAS reported 135,000 mt of US soymeal to the Philippines for the 2019/20 crop year.
- Russia appears to have planted a record amount of winter wheat estimated by private sources at 16.3 million ha (40.3 million acres) vs 15.9 million ha (39.3 million acres) last year. Assuming trend yield, the extra area should produce in a range of 78-79 million mt, up slightly from the current crop year. Ukraine’s wheat seedings look to be down slightly via autumn dryness, so the Russian gain places full focus on spring and early summer growing conditions in 2020.
- Chinese pork prices pushed to another record high to start the week with some wondering where the rally really stops. Demand for the holiday season is weeks away, but will be sizeable. Meat shortages are worsening in urban areas.
- The Argentine Peso is trading slightly stronger this morning at 59.3 to 1$. The Peso is stable following the election as new economic platforms are awaited from the Fernandez Administration .
- The midday GFS weather forecast offers more snow for portions of NW IL and SEIA with totals up to 15″. The remainder of the forecast is little changed with rains for the remainder of the E Midwest while cold air pours southward from Canada. The coldest of the air looks to reside in the Plains and Rockies. Cold air lingers into early November slowing US corn and soybean harvest.
- Trade volume is just horrible with little interest in trading at midday. The breaks won’t carry through while rallies are capped by harvest pressure. US corn exports are horribly slow while China is not showing renewed interest for US soybeans. French wheat prices sagged while Black Sea offers are steady. The cash markets are not offering any new direction. Our view heading into the November USDA report is for a choppy sideways marketplace that just won’t follow through.