- US winter wheat is now 86% planted, up from 79% a week ago, and ahead of the five year average of 85%; emergence looks good at 65%, again just one point ahead of the five year average figure. The corn crop rated at good/excellent is 2% up from a week ago at 62% and is 59% harvested, a massive jump from last week’s 39%. Soybeans are 77% harvested, up from 63% a week ago and on par with the five year average.
- S American rainfall in the coming week looks to be favourable for Argentina and also Brazil. The forecast Argentine precipitation should go a long way towards eradicating some of the drought problems – hopefully improving crop prospects.
- CBOT markets have been mixed with neither the bulls or the bears gaining the upper hand, and interestingly the “turnaround Tuesday” phenomenon not materialising with any significance. Cash markets appear to be remaining firm in the US with limited producer selling and consumers having to pay up if they need supplies. In the absence of any “new” news it would appear to be something of a struggle for prices to either decline or make gains with anything approaching conviction ahead of the upcoming USDA report. The content of the report could well spark strong moves, particularly if favourable yield numbers and overall output are confirmed.
- In Argentina it has been suggested that import licences are about to be granted in an effort to subdue rapidly rising prices, which are approaching $700/mt – the world’s highest. Import logistics will, no doubt, present some issues and the imminent harvest will present a volume cap. All in all, the prospect of imports could well be considered as something of a “red herring” and of little material effect – as always, time will tell.