- Ag markets are mixed at midday, with grains steady and beans down 5-6 cents. The US$ has rallied further and looks to settle at the strongest level since August. US job growth in October will be released Friday morning. A strong showing will keep the US$ as a safe haven investment. The €uro is testing last week’s lows.
- US exporters sold two cargoes of soybeans to unknown destinations for 2018/19 delivery. Other fresh news is lacking. US export inspections through the week ending Oct 25 included 26 million bu of corn, vs. 40 million the prior week and expectations for 35-45 million bu. Wheat export inspections totalled a routine 14 million bu, unchanged from the prior week. Soybean inspections were 48 million bu, vs. 45 million bu the previous week and the highest of the marketing year so far. For their respective crop years to date, the US has shipped 338 million bu of corn, up 69% from last year; 269 million bu of soybeans, down 41%; and 316 million bu of wheat, down 23% from this week in 2017. Mexico has been an abnormally large buyer US beans, but pace analysis suggests the USDA’s total US soybean export forecast is too high. Note that amid this season’s record pace of planting in Brazil, early season soy exports there will begin in very early February.
- Brazilian soybean planting last week reached nearly 50% finished, and should hit 60-65% complete this week. Normal rain continues across Central Brazil into the weekend. There are hints of a more pronounced boost in soil moisture in the 8-15 day period. Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goias (which when added together account for some 50% of Brazil’s soy crop are targeted with rainfall of 3-5” in the period Nov 9-12.
- The trade’s average guess on US soybean harvest rests at 70% complete, with corn at 64%. Winter wheat conditions, the first of the season, are estimated at 53-55% good/excellent, vs. 52% in late Oct a year ago.
- The midday central US weather forecast is little changed. A rather stagnant pattern lies ahead, with dryness and near normal temperatures to continue across the Plains and far Western Midwest. Cooler temperatures and moderate but steady rainfall occur across the Delta/Southeast and Central and Eastern Midwest. Low pressure will linger aloft the Great Lakes region over the next ten days. Overnight lows in the 30s will be more common across the Northern and Eastern Ag Belt beginning this weekend. Cumulative precipitation (mostly rain) into Nov 12 is pegged at 2.0-3.5” across IN, OH, OH, TN and KY.
- Egypt’s buying US wheat last week is a big deal, longer term. Gulf HRW this evening will maintain discounts to Black Sea origin for Dec-Feb arrival. We also wonder if world millers/end users will be more active in extending wheat coverage as deferred Russian offers stay at elevated levels. Wheat will likely gain on corn/beans into late year.