- In Chicago the grains, corn and wheat are trading a touch higher whilst soybeans are again lower. It is clear that the market now has some concern that US corn planting is not going to be as early as previously anticipated, and there is a suggestion that Midwest farmers will be anxious to accept the prevent planting program option in order to maximise profitability. Current soybean and corn prices reflect losses to growers and farmers are happy to play the government system if wet weather persists. This scenario has the market now adding some weather premium back into prices.
- Brazilian soybean exports for the new crop year to date are up a sizeable 31% (from last year) amid large Chinese offtake, and there are over 9 million mt of Brazilian soybeans in the line up to load during April. World demand for soybeans is record large. The Brazilian port of Rio Grande reported its first strike this morning with protests against the government and Petrobras. The strike is not expected to last and other Brazilian ports should be able to handle the vessel loadings with wait periods of less than a week.
- Historically is is usually all about weather following the March Stocks/Seeding report and 2017 is no different. The weather is too dry across the Black Sea, Europe and N Africa for wheat, while excessive rain will slow the early corn seeding across the Central US. Soybeans are sagging with China out on holiday. The soybean/corn spread is back to a more normal 2.4:1 as the market tries to encourage more corn acres. December corn above $4.00 will likely be a struggle without extended wet weather for the Central US.