- We continue to hear talk about US and world crop sizes these days as a new Northern Hemisphere growing season really gets going. Big crops are always said to produce lower prices.
- Our concern is not the size of crops, but the lack of US and world grain demand growth!
- US and world bio-fuel demand growth is mature – and no, or extremely limited, growth is foreseen.
- US corn export demand has been stagnant for decades – and unlikely to enlarge substantially until China becomes a sizeable importer, or we see a considerably weaker US$ restore competitive prices from the US.
- We therefore see stable total US corn demand in the order of 13.3-13.7 billion bu for years to come – a big worry as US and world trend yields rise.
