- The USDA has reported on US weekly export volumes as follows:
- Chicago markets have vacillated on the last trading day of 2016 with funds cutting short grain/long soybean spread trades, volumes have not been heavy and prices have moved around quite sharply as a consequence. It has been interesting to hear some fund managers asking about long opportunities in 2017; seemingly after four years that have been largely bearish they are looking at Chicago as cheap and offering opportunity. However, this remains a “big crop” vs. “big demand” market place and it will require a S American weather issue in January/February to change this materially.
- January is a key month for soybean yields in Brazil and the forecast includes reduced prospects of rainfall across NE and NC Brazil. We struggle to become overly bearish as a consequence, and additionally the fact that the US has hit some 87% of annual soybean export forecasts supports this stance. This would appear to not be the point to turn bearish.
- We would like to wish everyone a very happy New Year and look forward to an interesting 2017.