• The USDA has today released its weekly export figures as detailed below:

Wheat: 796,900 mt which is above estimates of 300,000-500,000 mt.
Corn: 1,943,600 mt which is above estimates of 550,000-750,000 mt.
Soybeans: 865,800 mt which is within estimates of 750,000-1,050,000 mt.
Soybean Meal: 188,300 mt which is within estimates of 100,000-200,000 mt.
Soybean Oil: 6,600 mt which is within estimates of 0-30,000 mt.

• Probably worthy of note is the level of corn exports, significantly ahead of expectations (almost twice anticipated levels). This has added a firmer tone to the market today and a watchful eye is now being kept on key resistance levels, particularly in the front month contract. A close above $3.36 could well spark some speculative buying although producer selling and the longer term global outlook would seem well able to limit upside.

• In line with other estimates from a variety of sources, the International Grains Council have released their latest update for 2013/14 global wheat output at 707 million mt, which is a month on month increase of 9 million mt. The global wheat crop for 2014/15 is estimated slightly lower at 697 million mt. Similarly, the 2013/14 global corn crop is estimated 9 million mt higher at 959 million mt compared with last month’s estimated figure.

• Brussels has granted wheat export certificates for the week totalling 648,085 mt, which brings the season total to 18.182 million mt. This is 5.832 million mt (47.2%) ahead of the same time last year.

• Following yesterday’s wheat purchase by Egypt it seems the French, who were left out in the cold by the tighter moisture specification, are a bit miffed! They plan to lobby the Egyptian authorities and stress how important French wheat is to them and their import programme. The French plan to tell Egypt that it is not in their best interests to reduce contractual moisture levels, not because they traditionally grow to 13.5% in France and it would cost an additional €1 to dry down, but because non-French sellers would look for higher prices if French wheat was not physically able to be shipped to Egypt. It sounds a bit like “throwing toys out of the pram” to us, but it will be interesting to see how Egypt reacts and if they do anything about it in their next tender.