- Chicago markets return after a long weekend and it has been wheat that has shown the way lower with front month futures as much as 3% lower on the day. Corn is also lower although not as much (front month down 2%) and soybeans dropped less than 1%.
- It seems that favourable US weather is weighing on the market and news that the wheat harvest in Oklahoma is under way and producing both good yields and quality also impacted prices. Clearly we need to see conditions remain dry to allow progress and to that end forecasts appear to be playing ball right now with conditions looking good into mid-June.
- We are in a position where weather premium is currently in the process of being removed from current pricing as weather outlooks, regardless of which model is used, can be described as unexciting!
- Corn planting data will be released later tonight, but expectation is that we will see corn at 94-95% planted and soybeans at 70%. Corn condition is expected to be 71% good/excellent with wheat ratings steady to higher.
- We are at a stage in the season where weather, which has largely been an incidental issue in the past few months, will become a much more significant determinant of pricing. Crop critical weather will be watched closely and July (corn pollination) weather will be important to say the least. Weather will be less significant for wheat given global supplies.