Today’s news includes the latest forecast from private analyst Informa Economics who reduced the Argentine 2012/13 soybean crop to 58.4 million mt from 59.5 million mt last and the corn crop was cut to 27 million mt from 28 million mt last reported. At the same time Brazilian soybean output was increased slightly to 81.4 million mt from 81.25 million mt whilst corn numbers were cut slightly to 66.2 million mt from 66.8 last estimated.

The Argentine cuts were attributed to a drop in harvested acres and lower yields, the region has been suffering from excessive rainfall and flooding.

Interestingly, in the same report China’s 2012/13 corn crop was projected at 7.1 million mt higher at 208.1 million mt, the same as forecast by Chinese officials.

Australia’s ABARES has provided an upbeat report on their wheat prospects stating that crops were not a badly affected as many believed.Their estimate of the 2012 wheat crop was 22 million mt, down a million from their previous forecast but still 26% behind last year. Their outlook for exports was stronger than the USDA’s forecast, a figure of 20.9 million mt was quoted which would put them only second to the US in the league of global exporters with Canada and the EU following behind.

Closer to home in a move away from the usual “flooding and rainfall” stories we hear that combines are rolling in the UK once again! The recent freeze has firmed ground sufficiently in some areas to permit travel on previously waterlogged ground.

Given all the “good news” today it is little wonder we have seen markets ease a touch! However, we continue to maintain our view on the overall tightness of global stocks and caution against complacency.