• We have seen another day of rallying prices as the US$ traded mostly weaker and funds have been actively covering short positions.There has been some optimism over Greece’s ability to stump up €310 million for the IMF tomorrow (Friday), but that pales into insignificance when compared with the €1.3 billion which falls due in the coming weeks. It is interesting to note that energies (crude, gasoline and ethanol) were al trading lower around midday.

• The USDA has today released its weekly export figures as detailed below:

Wheat: 343,700 mt, which is above estimates of minus 75,000-plus 100,000 mt.
Corn: 410,100 mt, which is below estimates of 550,000-750,000 mt.
Soybeans: 477,300 mt, which is above estimates of 150,000-350,000 mt.
Soybean Meal: 50,900 mt, which is below estimates of 75,000-150,000 mt.
Soybean Oil: 32,700 mt which is above estimates of zero-12,000 mt.

• The above requires little commentary other than to note that US corn sales have been declining in recent weeks as the US’s window of competition gets narrower. Net cancellations were recorded in new crop corn and soybean sales were at the higher end of expectations and wheat sales were a shade below the run rate required to hit the USDA’s last target figure. All in all an unexciting set of figures.

• Brussels has issued an increased weekly volume of wheat export certificates with this week’s total reaching 502,147 mt, which brings the season total to 31,558,288 mt. The season to date total is now 3.263 million mt (11.53%) ahead of last year. At the same time we saw Brussels give 325,000 mt of Ukraine imports bringing the season to 778,000 mt out of a quota of 950,000 mt. What one hand gives, the other takes away springs to mind!

• Weather forecast highlights include better rainfall in Canada and Europe beyond mid-June and the outlook has a distinct lack of threatening heat for the US as well as regular rains across the C Plains, Midwest and Delta into the third week of June.

• In other news we have seen the Rouble fall around 3% today on renewed troubles in E Ukraine, a subject that has been on the back burner for some while now. Doubtless the lower crude oil prices and potential for an extension of EU sanctions has not helped the Rouble’s cause either! The potential issue going forward is the possibility of a “trigger” in the Russian export tax; today’s prices will not attract anything more than the minimum $1, but as we have seen a move in excess of 10% in the value of the Rouble it will not take much to change the picture significantly.