- Although no losses have yet occurred in Argentine crops (in fact wheat yields continue to rise as the harvest advances), a forecast from the National Weather Service (NWS) is calling for continued below normal rainfall into the end of February. This caught the market short and sparked a sizeable Monday rally, although the market closed below the session highs. Much of C and N Argentina is forecast to see just 20-40% of normal from December into February. Whilst this is not totally fresh news it seems to have only just caught the attention of fund managers, who have reacted today. As we have previously pointed out, the importance os S American weather is beginning to gather significance from a market perspective. La Niña is fading (if it existed at all) and a more normal climate should resume.
- It has been up and away with Chicago markets rallying sharply with corn in the lead as dry Argentine weather forecasts are being discussed. As of today, no crop losses are noted as surplus soil moisture is being maintained. It is the outlook for the second half of December that will be important going forward.