• Today’s news has to be led with the record level of EU wheat this week. Brussels issued weekly wheat export certificates totalling 1,706,940 mt, which brings the season total to 19,433,922 mt. This is 325,699 mt (1.7%) ahead of last year’s record pace. The sheer size of this week’s exports argues in favour of our comments earlier in the week, that total exports could reach 31 or even 32 million mt and that the French (in particular) are cheap sellers looking to offload old crop supplies ahead of the new crop harvest, which does not look threatened at this time.

• Second to EU wheat export is probably the plunging value of the Ukrainian Hryvnia, which fell over 32% this morning as the Central Bank scrapped currency auctions and moved to a freely floating currency! Seemingly the Central Bank was or has run out of US$ to defend the national currency any longer. Consequently, sellers of Ukrainian grain have withdrawn to the sidelines for now, undoubtedly they will re-emerge before long, and aggressively so at that time. Interior grain prices have soared to record levels and farmers are frantically searching for seed to capitalise on windfall high prices. Doubtless the costs of growing the crop will have risen too, but more importantly the selling price has moved to record highs.

• US wheat has also rallied on news that Egypt could purchase as much as six cargoes of US Soft Red Wheat. However, there are question marks over quality and whether the US grain can meet Egyptian specifications (vomitoxin for example).

• The USDA has today released its weekly export figures, which offered little in the way of surprises,  as detailed below:

Wheat: 487,000 mt, which is within estimates of 300,000-500,000 mt.
Corn: 852,000 mt, which is within estimates of 800,000-1,000,000 mt.
Soybeans: 496,700 mt, which is within estimates of 200,000-500,000 mt.
Soybean Meal: 302,300 mt, which is above estimates of 120,000-300,000 mt.
Soybean Oil: 15,100 mt which is within estimates of 5,000-50,000 mt.

• In summary, this week has been a roller coaster of whipsaw action in energies and currencies that has stimulated market volatility. Both bullish and bearish traders are catching their breath after the recent exhausting sessions. As a consequence we have seen uncertainty, and this is one thing that markets hate – with a passion!

• We look forward to a return of calmer days and more certainty – whenever that may be!