- Egypt’s GASC has made another wheat purchase in its latest tender, for early November shipment. Russia was the sole successful render winner, achieving 240,000 mt at a price reported at $187.20/mt basis C&F, which is a mere 17 cents above the last tender on 22 September.
- Informa Economics late yesterday pegged US corn yield at 174.5 bushels/acre with production at 15,215 million bu, which compares with the latest NASS estimate of 15,093. Soybean yield was estimated at 51.6 bushels/acre with production at 4,300 million bu with the NASS number standing at 4,201 million bu. The numbers put out by Informa are regarded as slightly bearish, if realised, because the additional production will likely drop straight into end stocks rather than find their way into either exports or consumption.
- Today has seen Chicago wheat jump whilst corn is about unchanged and soybeans are trading lower as we head into the close. Morocco is reported to have made another sizeable purchase of US wheat, which has added support and short covering has followed. 260,000 mt was reported to have been sold; the recent pick up in Russian FOB levels has left US Gulf highly competitive and doubtless security of quality will also be relevant in this variable quality year.
- Combine reports from the northern half of the corn belt have improved according to information we are picking up. Record yields reports in IL are becoming more frequent and N Plains data is very good when compared with last year. Soybean yield trend continues unchanged with mostly record yields being reported, the “big crop” story machine continues to roll!
- The fund’s net short position in Chicago is looking more vulnerable as the US finds export demand and global quality issues remain. Our view that downside risk in wheat is limited is strengthening and this will potentially provide support to corn in the longer term. However, the big picture remains one of “big crop” and “big demand” and it remains a tough call to support either the bulls or the bears in a major way.