6 August 2015

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  • The USDA has today released its weekly export figures as detailed below:

Wheat: 840,800 mt, which is above estimates of 400,000-600,000 mt.
Corn: 274,300 mt, which is below estimates of 350,000-950,000 mt.
Soybeans: 576,900 mt, which is within estimates of 350,000-900,000 mt.
Soybean Meal: 59,900 mt, which is within estimates of 50,000-225,000 mt.
Soybean Oil: 10,200 mt, which is within estimates of 5,000-40,000 mt.

  • Brussels has issued weekly wheat export certificates amounting to  442,598 mt, which brings the season total to 2,097,860 mt. The season to date total is 695,076 mt (49.55%) ahead of last year.
  • The hot and dry conditions in Europe, particularly France (but also Romania), are adversely impacting non-irrigated corn acres as we have previously reported. Analyst ODA (Offre & Demande Agricole) puts the EU crop at 63.9 million mt, below the EU Commission’s latest estimate of 65.5 million mt, and significantly below last year’s 77.8 million mt figure.
  • Some trade estimates have come in as low as 61-62 million mt.
  • Chicago markets have been mixed with soybean and corn lower whilst wheat closed a touch higher on the back of better than expected US export sales. Interestingly it seems there were large net cancellations in old crop soybeans and old crop corn whilst new crop soybean sales hit 1 million mt for the first time this season despite the fact thay we would expect this to be a routine number at this time of year. New crop corn sales at 11 million bu can only be described as disappointing and in a nutshell US 2015/16 export commitments for corn, soybeans, soybean meal and wheat remain substantially behind last year.
  • Crude oil and gasoline futures prices extended their losses down $0.90/barrel and $0.04/gallon respectively with spot ethanol following behind.
  • In Europe, Paris wheat rallied as Socomac followed Senalia in halting grain intake into the Rouen silo (export and futures) quite what the link is is something of a mystery but it is happening and we are not too proud to admit it. Hopefully we will reach some conclusions before long!