US weekly export figures released today were as follows:

Wheat: 353,100 mt, which was within estimates of 350-500,000 mt.
Corn: 47,400t, which was below estimates of 350-550,000 mt.
Soybeans: 1.14 million mt, which was above estimates of 500-700,000 mt.
Soymeal: 464,800 mt, which was above estimates of 150-300,000 mt.
Bean oil: 19,000 mt, which was below estimates of 50-100,000 mt.

The effect on the market close was corn settling 4 to 5 cents lower, wheat gaining a couple of cents and the soy complex finishing in positive territory.

In S America we heard reports that Argentinian some wheat exports are blocked due to a “lack of export permits”. The AgMin have denied that there is any export suspension, we picked up that the Argentine government “may” be about to apply some form of pro-rata to existing export licences as they are struggling to find the necessary volume of wheat. We stress that this is, as yet, unconfirmed, however the wet conditions experienced over recent weeks and months does give a degree of credibility to the rumour.

Staying with news from Argentina, the reported barley yields in the north are way below expectation, as much as 38% down, and if representative of the total crop, could take 2 million mt off the crop. The news has taken many by surprise and buyers are looking for alternate sources, without a huge degree os success right now.

According to Reuters the US winter wheat abandonment rate may reach as much as 25% as continued warm weather and lack of rainfall continue to stress the crop. Clearly the decision to plough up the crop and re-seed will wait until spring but the crop outlook has continued to decline beyond the last released USDA condition report as temperatures have remained higher than that required to allow the crop to enter winter dormancy; thus prolonging the period of drought induced stress. This level of abandonment has only been seen twice in the last 50 or 60 years,1988/9 and 2001/2. The decision on what to plant instead will only be made when conditions in the spring are known.

On a happier note, Brazil’s CONAB, the government food agency, forecast a 2012/13 soybean crop of 82.6 million mt, a figure greater than expected from the US crop this year. They also predicted their corn crop to be 71.9 million mt.

Weekly EU wheat export licences were issued for 746,000 mt bringing the season to date to 8.923 million mt, up from 7.966 million mt a year ago. Barley exports licences were 118,000 mt with the season at 2.581 million mt compared to 1.972 million mt last year. The combined additional exports close to 1.5 million mt so far this season; we continue to question how long this can continue and how big a “hole” is going to be left which will require imported feed grain to fill it!