• The USDA has today released its weekly export figures as detailed below:

Wheat: 733,600 mt which is within estimates of 500,000-750,000 mt.
Corn: 1,700,000 which is above estimates of 900,000-1,200,000 mt.
Soybeans: 796,500 mt which is within estimates of 550,000-850,000 mt.
Soybean Meal: 408,700 mt which is above estimates of 100,000-200,000 mt.
Soybean Oil: 26,000 mt which is within estimates of 0-30,000 mt.

• Obviously the key number in the array above is the corn export figure at 1.7 million mt, which is a full ½ million mt above expectation. It has been reported today that China has cancelled 220,000 mt of corn for 2013/14. Overall, the sales of both corn and soybean meal, which were above estimates, have added a degree of support to prices once again today. Monday’s looming USDA report has the potential to spark markets, one way or another, with adjustments to exports, consumption, etc on the cards. We will report on the figures in due course on Monday.

• Continuing with the exports theme, Brussels has issued another big week of wheat export certificates, this week’s volume reaching 926,495 mt (the biggest weekly total this season), which brings the season total to 19.108 million mt. This is 6.32 million mt (49.4%) ahead of last season’s total. We are fast approaching last season’s export total, which reached 20.9 million mt, and we are 32 weeks into the season. A mathematical projection, using the average exports to date, would bring this year’s total to a mind boggling 31 million mt; now there are those who may scoff at such fanciful projections, but the pace of exports has been rising once again since mid-December. The eventual outcome will be an interesting figure indeed.

• Finally, we note that the soybean harvest in Brazil is progressing, and a figure of 6% complete or 5 million mt is being discussed (effective end Jan ’14). Forecast weather conditions suggest that wetter conditions may create some harvest delays although it will benefit the upcoming corn crop. Dry conditions across northeastern Brazil will allow crop shipments to proceed unhindered although further south may see some port work disruption due to rains. Argentine weather is forecast to turn dryer which will be seen as a benefit following recent good rains.

• The next week, including the USDA update is going to be very important in terms of market direction, and our view remains unchanged despite recent moves to the upside.