• The USDA has today released its weekly export figures as detailed below:

Wheat: 600,500 mt which is above estimates of 250,000-450,000 mt.
Corn: 1,682,500 mt which is above estimates of 600,000-850,000 mt.
Soybeans: 1,029,400 mt which is above estimates of 450,000-750,000 mt.
Soybean Meal: 268,700 mt which is above estimates of 75,000-150,000 mt.
Soybean Oil: 16,800 mt which is within estimates of 0-30,000 mt.

• The greater than anticipated volumes in wheat, corn, soybeans and meal have all lent additional support to markets, which are already generally well supported by the funds. Whilst it will only be Friday evening when we receive the official data, it appears that overall open interest is declining seemingly as a result of spec short covering. In a “proper” bull market we would expect to see an increase in open interest rather than the current trend. This begs the question, “Is this a bullish market, or not?”

• Selling is noted in new crop corn and soybeans in Argentina and Brazilian farmers are scale up sellers in soybeans. The current rally is particularly appealing to the S American farmer right now. It would seem that soybean prices basis FOB Paranagua when compared with FOB US Gulf are $1.10/bu cheaper, this coupled with better than previously anticipated load times is encouraging the switch to Brazil.

• Brussels has granted weekly wheat export licences totalling 586,316 mt, which brings the season total to 21.873 million mt. This is 6.868 million mt (45.8%) ahead of the same time last season.

• In Ukraine the situation remains complicated, although (thankfully) relatively calm. There has been a vote by the Crimean legislature to hold a referendum on returning the peninsula to Russian control, and this is currently scheduled for 16 March. The international implications regarding economic sanctions agains Russia become harder to contemplate in the light of this latest news.