- Soybean prices eased overnight on profit taking, but firm grain prices and improving cash basis supported higher trade through Friday. At the close, November futures were up 4 cents for the day and 5 cents higher for the week. The main feature for next week’s market will be the October Crop Report on Thursday. Soybean yield results around the Midwest have been highly variable, and the average trade estimate keeps yield unchanged at 49.9 bushels/acre. Our bias leans towards 48 bushels/acre.
- December corn futures rallied very slightly, but again traded in just a three-cent range. End user demand continues on breaks as cattle prices inch higher, barge freight declines and spot ethanol production margins are still good, though have fallen some $.30/gallon in the last two weeks. The very latest weather model runs still lack any pattern change in Central and Northern Brazil, and operational forecasts now stretch into October 22. First-crop corn planting is also being slowed in S Brazil amid soaking rainfall, which will continue steadily for another two weeks, and flood concerns will be rising. It has been a less than ideal start for S America. Aside from a major surprise in NASS’s October production next week, there is just not going to be much to drive the market higher or lower, but longer term our work suggests that highly favourable weather is needed in S America from now until late spring to trigger sub $3.40 spot futures.
- Wheat ended higher in the US, lower in Europe, and much of this attributed to currency changes. The US$ ended the session lower following disappointing US employment data, while the €uro strengthened slightly. Interior Russian prices were again steady in both Rubles and US$. There is a rather wide spread ($50/mt) between interior and fob prices, but the fact that the interior market has stabilised is important. Russian fob offers this evening are weaker, but only very slightly, and US Gulf HRW is offered competitively. The USDA’s October WASDE will be the first in which Australian production is seriously adjusted, but otherwise we doubt any fireworks lie in the offing.