• HEADLINES: Soybeans turn down on fund liquidation; Chicago corn futures lower after yesterday’s one-month high; Wheat futures lower after recent rally.

• Soybean futures turned lower on late-week fund liquidation and weakness in the soybean meal market. December soybean meal ended the week with the lowest close since early June, pulling November soybeans to a similarly low weekly close.

• The Commitment of Traders report showed that for the week ending October 3, funds sold just over 25,000 contracts of soybeans, sold over 18,200 contracts of soybean meal, and were net buyers of 6,300 contracts of soybean oil. Fund length in the soybean market was pared back to just 5,000 contracts, the lowest since late May. Funds were net long 41,000 contracts of soymeal or the lowest since May 2022. Fund’s largest net long position was just over 41,000 contracts in soyoil.

• Soybean futures are deeply oversold, but steady/lower price trends are expected ahead of the October USDA reports that will be released Thursday. Cash markets look to be bottoming, but a lasting recovery will wait until after the October Crop Report.

• Chicago corn futures closed at $4.92, down 5 cents on the day. Dec corn retreated today after setting a one-month high yesterday. Some traders pointed to forecasts for favourable harvest weather as a contributing factor in the market’s selloff. The bearish mood was further exacerbated by the larger than expected US Jobs report which is seen as assuring the Fed will raise interest rates once again.

• Ship line-ups indicate that corn export inspections could be 35 million bu, the largest in half a year. At least one cargo is destined for China with more vessels to depart in coming weeks.

• The next target for Dec corn is around $5.07 then $5.25. Any S American weather problem lifts spot Chicago corn to $5.50. Until then, spot Chicago corn is locked in $4.50-5.25 range.

• Chicago December wheat closed at $5.69, down 9 cents. KC wheat closed at $6.73, down 17 cents. Minneapolis wheat closed at $7.20, down 8 cents. MATIF wheat was down slightly. Traders shrugged off news that a sea mine had damaged a cargo ship in the Black Sea.

• Agronomists judge Sep rain as a defining factor determining the size of Australia’s wheat crop. The nation’s weather bureau said that this year’s Sep weather was the driest on record. In addition to the drought, temperatures soared to record highs last month. The scattered rain received in the southeast has not substantially changed the crop’s outlook. We look for further reductions in both the Aussie and Argentine wheat crops.

• Global wheat prices have bottomed. Market upside potential will be determined by the size of S. Hemisphere crop sizes and when rain falls across Argentina/Australia.

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