- Chicago mixed with summer row crop sag on yield fear; Wheat holds on rising EU/Black Sea offers; GFS midday weather forecast wetter for IL.
- Chicago ag markets are mixed at midday with corn/soybean futures lower while wheat tries to regain early day strength. The volume of trade has been moderate, and few are willing to enter new positions with the DOW up 500 points with the 10-year bond yield climbing back to 4% as US job unemployment claims fell to 233,000, which was less than expected and a positive sign for the US economy. The US dollar is modestly higher with high yield talk from the farmer keeping pressure on Chicago grain futures.
- There was a rumour this morning that NASS had completed a satellite study that showed US corn acres had fallen 70,000 acres and soybeans 46,000 acres due to late June flooding. The rumour is correct in that NASS did a flood study on a modest area surrounding the Missouri River. The study showed losses of 70,000 corn acres and 46,000 soybean acres with the results released back on July 9. The study should NOT be a reference on what NASS will offer on Monday when US planted/harvested acres are updated via FSA Farm Participation data is included.
- Chicago brokers report that managed money has sold 3,200 contracts of corn, 2,900 contracts of soybeans and 500 contracts of wheat. Funds are flat in soymeal while being sellers of a net 900 contracts of soyoil.
- US weekly export sales for the week ending August 1were 10.1 million bu of wheat, 19.1 million bu of old crop and 9.8 million bu of new crop corn (total 28.9 million bu), and 12.0 million bu of old and 36.2 million bu of new crop soybeans (total of 48.2 million bu total). For their respective crop years to date the US has sold 2,193 million bu of corn (up 606 million or 28%), 1,682 million bu of soybeans (down 268 million or 13%), and 316 million bu of US wheat (up 81 million or 34%). China secured 134,500 mt of US old crop and 400,000 mt for new crop soybeans last week. All origin US new crop soybean sales are 4.52 million mt.
- We hear that Chinese demand for US soybeans is occurring on a daily basis. Why these sales are not being reported by FAS is unknown, but speculation is growing that the purchases are made by COFCO and held on their domestic books (COFCO is a US Grain Merchant) and will not be announced until its shifted to COFCO China for export. WE also understand that as many as 10-14 cargoes of US soybeans have been sold to China this week. China appears to be going to some length to incorrectly report monthly soybean import volumes and become difficult to follow in individual country markets. China is booking US soybeans on breaks and will take at least 20-22 million mt of US soybeans in the 2024/25 crop year. We estimate that China will import 24.8 million mt of US soybeans in 2023/24. Through August 1, China has purchased on a known basis just 562,000 mt of US soy.
- The Central US midday GFS weather forecast is wetter across IL as a ridge riding storm takes aim on the state during July 13. The models poorly forecast ridge riding storms beyond the next 48 hours and our confidence in the wetter midday IL forecast is no better than the totally dry overnight solution. There will be changes in the IL forecast heading into next week.
- Mild to cool temperatures will blanket all but TX/OK this week. Highs across the principal Corn Belt will range from the 70’s to the mid-80s. Overnight lows are forecast to drop into the 40s/50’s. Heat resumes after Aug 14-15, but extreme readings are forecast to favour areas in the western third of the US. This is not a wet general Midwest forecast, but ridge riding storms will produce better rainfall across the Plains and the Western Midwest.
- Private discussions point to a US corn yield of 183 bushels/acre plus and a soybean yield of 53 bushels/acre plus for Monday. Few are willing to forecast planted and harvested acreage changes, but we see a loss of 1.0 million acres of corn and 600,000 acres of soybeans. Thus, a corn yield gain of 2.3 bushels/acre could be totally offset by a harvested acreage loss of 1.0 million. The shock would be if 2024/25 US corn stocks hold steady or decline. Soyoil has a developing story on US UCO supplies are being scrutinised by EPA, which trims imports.