- CBOT corn, soybeans and soybean meal markets have shown a strong rally, albeit closing off the day’s highs, on forecasts of developing hot and dry weather in the US Midwest. Additionally tightness in old crop supplies have helped the July contracts (which expire on Friday) remain at strong premiums to the new crop. Short covering assisted the market’s rise in early trade. Wheat has also risen, presumably in sympathy with corn. The rally saw producer selling in new crop positions which saw prices ease from the day’s highs.
- The weather development in the US will be key, but markets will lose the old crop stimulus after the close on Friday, and it is possible that this will be sufficient to see new crop fundamentals to overtake the old crop supply worries and prices ease as a consequence.
- Brazil’s Conab raised the already record 2012/13 soybean and corn crop output figures at 81.5 million mt and 79.1 million mt respectively. In the same report the 2013/14 wheat crop was put at 5.61 million mt, a slight increase from last month’s figure. Soybean and corn forecasts for the 2013/14 crop year will not be published until October, after planting,
- Various news agencies have reported financial arrangements being negotiated with Egypt, including a $3 billion loan from United Arab Emirates, and a $5 billion aid package from Saudi Arabia. It will be interesting to see whether they return to the tender table when these deals are concluded.
- OilWorld have today raised their forecast for EU rapeseed output at 20.4 million mt, an increase from 19.72 month on month, which is almost exactly 1 million mt higher than last year’s output. They cited improved growing conditions across much of the EU, which have more than made up for the poor anticipated UK and northern French crop. They also forecast an improved Ukraine crop, over 2 million mt, significantly above last year’s 1.3 million mt.