- Chicago markets are generally lower to start the week, wheat specifically so with the front three month contracts all around 3.5% lower with less than an hour of trading to go. Rainfall in Brazil’s Mato Grosso and Goias over the weekend was a bit better than expected. A weaker US$ and spot crude oil down $0.50/barrel has not added any support.
- Chicago wheat has pulled back from its secondary “top”; 7 October and 4 November both marked the recent highs in the December ’15 contract. Ukraine is showing no sign of slowing exports and their weather forecast continues to contain rain that will doubtless be welcomed when it actually falls. The net fund position, which is short, shows no immediate requirement to be covered as N Hemisphere weather conditions remain non-threatening, for now.
- Tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report is expected to show a moderate boost in US end stocks but the real key will be how the global corn trade matrix is adjusted, if at all. Brazilian export commitments continue at record pace and US exports continue to languish, particularly when compared with last year. Unless we see US corn and soybean yields increased by more than 0.5-1.0 bushels/acre it could well be the case that we have already seen season lows.
- Finally, Brazilian independent truckers have started what is reported to be an indefinite strike blocking traffic in some states.