- Chicago contracts remain in the red at midday, but corn, wheat and soybeans have rebounded from overnight lows. Confidence is increasing with respect to some amount of rainfall benefiting Central and Northern Argentina late this week, but whether follow up rainfall returns in mid-Feb is critical, as is the actual performance of the coming precipitation event. Amid a lingering La Niña we doubt that a lasting pattern shift lies in the offing, and so cumulative rainfall there this growing season looks to stay at some 40-60% of normal.
- Stats Canada released its periodic major crop stocks report this morning, and the data was met with little fanfare. Stocks of major crops in Canada as of Dec 31 were generally in line with expectations, and major changes to Canada’s annual balance sheets are not anticipated. Dec 31 Canadian wheat stocks totalled 23.6 million mt, vs. 24.1 million a year ago. Canadian canola (rapeseed) stocks totalled 14.1 million mt, vs. 13.4 a year ago and an expectation of 14.3. Combined barley and oat stocks on Dec 31 totalled 8.9 million mt, unchanged from last year and compared to an expected 8.6 million mt. Canada’s grain and oilseed surplus is more than adequate.
- The US forecast at midday is wetter in the far E Plains next week but maintains complete dryness and wildly variable temps across TX, OK, W KS & CO. The issue, longer term, is that ENSO forecasts are reluctant to end La Niña. La Niña looks to stay weak, but its duration is now being pushed into the N Hemisphere summer. It is impossible to say much about the summer growing season, but La Niña does look to maintain its influence on weather in Argentina and the US Plains over the next several weeks.
- The USDA’s pending Feb WASDE report will again confirm ample stocks of grain/oilseeds in the US and elsewhere. We maintain that breaks are buying opportunities amid the risk of further drought expansion in the US this spring.