- Chicago corn, soybean and wheat futures are lower in morning trade amid the concern that US/Chinese trade has been complicated by the arrest and potential extradition of China CFO Huawei Meng Wanzhou by Canada for the US. The sharp fall in other financial markets and expectation for a strong US December Jobs report added to the early selling. The US DOW has lost more than 1,000 points in the last two trading sessions and investor concern is growing heading into yearend. Sharp losses in crude oil futures is adding to world growth concern.
- Chicago brokers report that funds have sold 4,500 contracts of corn, 3,900 contracts of soybeans, and 3,300 contracts of wheat. In soy products, funds have sold 3,100 contracts of soyoil and 1,900 contracts of soymeal.
- Egypt’s GASC received wheat offers from Russia, Ukraine and Romania. The fob offers ranged from $236.30-250/mt with freight offers ranging from $14.25-17/mt. CIF wheat values ranged from $252.20-265.89 or steady to $5.50/mt ton higher than their last tender in late November. We have heard that Egypt/GASC has started to open LC’s for late November and early December wheat shipments. Most sellers continued to load/float/transit wheat amid financial assurances that were provided by the ministry of supply yesterday. No US wheat was offered to GASC by exporters on price and tightness of GASC specified SRW supply.
- Stats Canada raised their estimate of all wheat production to 31.76 million mt, up modestly from their prior September forecast of 31.0 million. The durum crop was raised to 5.74 million mt, with the spring wheat crop pegged at 23.51 million. Canada’s canola crop was lowered to 20.3 million mt, down from 21.0 million in September, while their oat crop was forecast at 3.43 million mt vs 3.83 million in September. The Canadian wheat data was slightly bearish with the lower canola crop estimate said to be supportive.
- US weekly export sales on Friday are estimated in a range of; 400-600,000 mt wheat, 650-800,000 mt of soybeans, and 900,000-1.1 million mt of corn. US soy sales are pegged in a range of; 150-175,000 mt of soymeal and 4-9,000 soyoil.
- Ag traders are trying to find out if the US/China will be holding trade negotiations next week over IT protection/trade in Washington DC. China will be closely following the bail hearing set for Friday for the Huawei CFO. The meeting may hinge upon how the US handles the CFO extradition case in Canada. OPEC will NOT hold a press conference to gauge what Russia will do with its production. The Russians are expected to join OPEC on Friday for a decision.
- The midday S American weather forecast is little changed from what was offered overnight. An active front pulls through Argentina and S Brazil in the last half of next week to produce 0.5-2.00” of rainfall. The rain persists during the 11-15 day period with less moisture across N Brazil. No extreme heat is evident into late month.
- The DOW and crude oil have fallen sharply which has produced a negative tailwind for US ag products. However, with China buying rumours evident via the weekend G20 trade deal, traders are cautious not to make sales in the hole.