• US and world grain markets are higher at midday. US weekly export sales were solid across the aboard, while there’s talk that commercials are gearing up for some measure of Chinese demand, and possibly not only just US soybeans. Further details are unavailable, but short positions continue to be liquidated amid positive sentiment. We do mention that for now it is likely to be only state-owned companies in China. Private firms, however, account for the bulk of Chinese soybean imports, and until the 25% tariff on imported US beans is eliminated we caution against chasing rallies higher.

• Through the week ending November 29 US exporters sold 46 million bu of corn, down 3.5 million on the week but well above the pace needed to meet USDA’s forecast. Exporters also sold 33 million bu of soybeans, up 10 million on the week; and 26 million bu of wheat, up 12 million on the week and largest total since August. US wheat business through the week included 9 million bu of HRW, a 15-week high, and a sizeable 8 million of SRW, the largest of the marketing year so far. For their respective crop years to date, the US has committed 1,053 million bu of corn, up 17% on last year; 887 million bu of beans, down 33% on last year; and 573 million bu of wheat, down 11%. Exporters this morning also sold 224,000 mt of HRW to an unknown destination. Concern over availability of high quality wheat in Russia continues. Spot Russian fob values are up sharply this week. Interior Russian wheat continues to forge new two-year highs. Russian flour prices are also higher this week. US soybean export sales continue to lag further behind year-ago levels. It is true that the pace of demand will be steadier without China’s market in 2018/19, but quick Chinese interest is needed to validate the USDA’s forecast.

• Huawei CFO’s bail hearing will be ongoing this afternoon in Vancouver. Recent developments are largely seen in the context of broader issues between the US and China. The Dow at midday is down 350 points. Spot WTI crude is up $2.40/barrel as OPEC and Russia have agreed to cut output by 1.2 million barrels per day, a bit more than expected.

• The midday S American weather forecast into late December remains favourable. A more lasting period of dryness is forecast across Central and Northern Brazil, including the whole of Mato Grosso, in the 8-15 day period. Several rain events are offered to Argentina in the next two weeks, with cumulative totals there reaching upwards of 1.0-2.5”. Still no excessive heat is indicated.

• Wheat’s advance feels more fundamental in nature as demand begins to find the US market, and recall there is a full seven months of the international trade year yet to come.

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Weekend summary 7 December 2018