• US weekly exports figures released today were reported as follows:

Wheat: 574,600 mt within estimates of 450-650,000 mt
Corn: 393,300 mt above estimates of 150-250,000 mt
Soybeans: 1,788,800 mt above estimates of 750-950,000 mt
Soybean meal: 245,000 mt above estimates of 100-150,000 mt
Beanoil: 12,900 mt below estimates of 15-25,000 mt

       Generally these figures appear to be bullish.

• Further data releases include Strategie Grains 2013 EU grain outlook down 1.5 million mt mom but 17.5 million mt better yoy. Soft wheat numbers are estimated at 133.3 million mt, which is a reduction mom following reduced plantings, but an improvement of some 8% yoyI
• IGC (International Grain Council) figures released today showed a reduction in 2012/13 corn end  stocks to 113 million mt, a nine year low principally as a result of higher consumption. The figure is a 3 million mt reduction mom and down from last year’s figure of 133 million mt.
• The EU granted wheat export licences amounting to 399,000 mt bringing the year to date figure to 11.642 million mt, up from 9,465 million mt at the same time last year (23% increase).
• In a change of weather fortunes Argentina is experiencing some crop moisture stresses, which may well come as a surprise following weeks of relentless rainfall which damaged their wheat crop quality and quantity. Topsoil moisture levels have reduced markedly as January conditions have been hot and dry. Late planted corn is shallow rooted and struggling to access the subsoil moisture and is in need of rainfall to rejuvenate it. Seemingly, the last significant rainfall was over three weeks ago and daytime temperatures have been hitting 32℃ (90℉).
• These conditions, and the potential impact of output follow hot on the heels of the latest USDA prediction of 28 m ill ion mt output; the UN’s FAO (Food & Agriculture Organisation) figure is somewhat lower at 25.5 million mt.
• The recent onset of dry and hot conditions may well add further credence to the prospect of a stronger La Niña signal. Pacific Ocean surface temperatures have been trending lower this month, a potential contributor to La Niña. Typically Argentina is extremely sensitive to La Niña and El Niño patterns, and corn output figures strongly correlate to these conditions; high yield and output in El Niño and low yield and output in La Niña conditions.
• In summary, if an El Niño pattern becomes more established, and persists, the output of corn in Argentina is likely to be compromised and lower than either USDA or FAO figures suggest. This can not be viewed as good news hot on the heels of the current extremely tight US corn position which we continue to maintain is in need of elevated prices to instigate much needed demand rationing.