• In a “gin and tonic fuelled frenzy” of report writing over the weekend it has become clear that a major typo crept into one paragraph – apologies! The corrected paragraph follows:

In summary, if a La Niña (as opposed El Niño as originally written) pattern becomes more established, and persists, the output of corn in Argentina is likely to be compromised and lower than either USDA or FAO figures suggest. This cannot be viewed as good news hot on the heels of the current extremely tight US corn position, which we continue to maintain is in need of elevated prices to instigate much needed demand rationing.

• Tonight’s news will be limited as the US markets are closed in observance of Martin Luther King Day. This did not prevent some sharp upward price movement in London and Paris wheat markets, albeit in thin volume, which might not hold when the US returns tomorrow.
• In a move most likely prompted by ongoing strong domestic flour and wheat prices, Russian government officials are discussing whether to lift their 5% grain import duty in an effort to ensure adequacy of supplies following their reduced harvest and heavy early export sales. It was reported that discussions are in preliminary stages and no decisions have been reached at this time. Ongoing intervention sales have done little to curb the sharp increase in prices which have been a feature this season. In later news we hear rumours (unconfirmed) that the potential for imports is being contemplated.
• The Russian Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) reported that wheat exports hit nearly 10  million mt by mid-January, with overall grain exports hitting 13.7 million mt. The inference is one of a slowdown in export activity as exportable supplies are well depleted and empirical evidence of both physical port activity and offers for sale support this. In a similar pattern it would appear that Ukrainian grain export levels will continue their downward trend with January unlikely to exceed 1.5 million mt, maize is likely to dominate this volume.