- Markets appear to be working hard to digest what is truly occurring weatherise in S America. It seems that conditions are not as favourable as would be desired given the tightness in global soybean and corn markets, which is placing pressure upon S American output.
- In Russia we hear of continued discussion over the reduction, or complete removal, of the 5% grain import duty which was first raised (then denied) last week. Domestic prices have moved higher again and we appear to be approaching a political standoff with the Agricultural Minister not wishing to appear in the wrong by failing to curb exports earlier in the year; removing the import duty would be tantamount to such an admission and loss of face seems impossible to avoid right now. It would appear inevitable that a change of some sort in the import duty will take place before too long.
- Argentine weather conditions continue to be less than ideal with heat and below ideal precipitation in the forecast. It appears that crop moisture requirements are unlikely to be met in coming days. S Brazil’s conditions are switching with rainfall required to rejuvenate both corn and soybeans, and to add to the stresses, temperatures are reportedly rising to higher than average.
- In marked contrast, Matto Grosso, Brazil’s top soybean producer, has improved prospects as the weather conditions have turned wetter following extremely dry conditions in December and early January. The timing of these rains favours pod filling in advance of March harvest.
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