- Chicago futures at midday are weaker by varying degrees. Soybeans have paced the decline following solid weekend S American rainfall and as nearby US/China trade deal optimism wanes. Macro markets are mostly weaker, with the Dow down a modest 40 points and spot crude sustaining losses of $0.30-0.40/barrel. EU wheat futures are lower, with the market unable to find follow-through buying despite EU wheat export improvement.
- USDA reports this week will be delayed 24 hours amid today’s Veterans Day holiday. This includes FAS daily export sales reporting.
- We expect weekly export inspections on Tuesday to include 12-15 million bu of wheat and corn shipments, while an average weekly pace of 37 million bu of corn is needed to validate the USDA’s new 1,850 million bu forecast.
- Weekly soybean export shipments are expected in a range of 48-53 million bu, down slightly from recent weeks but still reflective of recent Chinese interest.
- Fresh ag-specific news is limited to midday weather updates. The US forecast is broadly unchanged. Pesky snow will impact the Northern Plains and Great Lakes region into mid-week. Accumulations of more than 2″ will favour N IN, NOH and Ml. Dry weather persists elsewhere. We would mention that model guidance, including NOAA’s, features a much warmer temperature profile beginning late in the coming weekend. Follow-up rain/snow is absent from the Central US outlook Nov 14-25.
- Key in the weeks ahead will be the response of interior corn basis across the E Midwest once harvest is complete there. Spot basis in Central OH has rallied to $0.35 over Chicago futures. This compares to $0.50 under futures a year ago in early November.
- A drier and relatively warmer pattern lies ahead for Central Europe. The pace of winter wheat planting has been a concern there since early Nov. However, speedier planting lies ahead. The wheat market, following a new high in global stocks, is searching for new bullish input outside of ongoing severe dryness, and damaging wildfires, in Eastern Australia.
- Chicago brokers estimate that funds have sold a net 2,500 contracts of corn, 1,000 contracts of Chicago wheat and 4,500 contracts of soybeans.
- The midday S American weather forecast is slightly wetter in Goias and Minas Gerais in Central Brazil. Otherwise the outlook is unchanged from early morning releases. A pattern of near-daily showers will be ongoing across Brazil’s primary Soy Belt into Nov 20. An expansion in rainfall reaches into the drier areas of NE Brazil beginning this weekend. Some 95% of Brazil’s soy region will be well watered by late November. Isolated but heavy showers impact critical areas of Cordoba in Argentina in the next 72 hours. And a rather expansive pattern of moisture is offered to Argentina in the 9-15 day period. The outlook is favourable.
- Yields on the remainder of US corn still unharvested will be watched closely. But a major change in Chicago price trends require new supply dislocation. US/China uncertainty is expected to linger and remain into late year.