- Friday’s USDA report had little in the way of significance, as we anticipated, and whilst we might take issue with some of their numbers, the market has shrugged it off almost as a non-event, and we look forward to what is likely to be a more influential report on 28th March.
- Some commentators are beginning to report that the long lived selling pressure and markets are oversold right now. Where have we heard that before? This could well suggest that if there is any sign of a “trigger” we could well see funds booking their profits in equity markets and transfer monies back into relatively cheap commodities – with potential upside for prices.
- Markets showed some glimmer of strength as Chinese buyers looked, once again, at US soybeans amid fears of loading delays and shipping disruption in Brazil. Some consider that normality is unlikely to be restored to Brazilian shipping until at least April; if this is the case pressure will remain on US stocks as buyers look to secure supplies leaving an ever tightening position.
- The long standing US drought situation and its consequent worries are easing fast as heavy rains continue to wash over the MidWest. Key corn producing states have received as much as two to four times normal precipitation in March so far. A drier period is forecast for this week which will be welcomed as we approach April and fieldwork in preparation for the busy planting season. Further north deep snows in North Dakota still cover the spring wheat growing areas. A rapid onset of thaw is needed to allow timely seedbed preparation, although an overly fast thaw would create flooding risks. It seems there is only a narrow band of optimal conditions!