- Chicago values are again mixed at midday. Row crops have added to overnight losses as better than expected rain works across Central IL and as midday weather updates lack sustained heat and dryness into the opening days of August. Recorded precipitation in the last 24 hours now includes totals of 0.50-1.00″ across MN, NE, KS, N MO and W IL. US wheat futures found buying this morning following purchases from Egypt and Jordan.
- FAS through its daily reporting system announced that US exporters sold 306,000 mt of soybeans to China and unknown destinations for new crop delivery. Exporters also sold 207,880 mt of corn to unknown destinations, of which 25,400 is for old crop delivery. We hear that the corn sale was likely made to one or more Latin American countries.
- Egypt’s GASC this m morning secured 115,000 mt of Ukrainian wheat for late August delivery, and only Black Sea origin was offered. The tender’s details were absent as of now but the cheapest Ukrainian offer was quoted at $209/mt, basis fob. Egypt’s fob purchase price last week $212. Ukraine’s lowest offer is viewed as aggressive given Black Sea 12.5-pro fob quotes this morning of $206-207/mt.
- Other news is lacking and N Hemisphere weather will continue to drive daily price action. We note that updated EU model weekly guidance features normal precipitation and slightly above normal Central US temperatures throughout the next 30 days. Climate work further suggests that any sustained strong high-pressure ridging will largely avoid the primary US Ag Belt. Wet weather is most probable across the Central Plains and Upper Midwest into the second half of August.
- Updated crop maps from the USDA also include above average vegetation health across Europe and Ukraine. Crop health there has been maintained despite a pattern of below normal precipitation across Western Europe and much of Ukraine in the last 30 days. Heat has been absent from Ukraine so far in July. Subsoil moisture in Europe and Ukraine remains adequate. Time is running out for Mother Nature to materially reduce Northern Hemisphere corn yield potential.
- The EIA’s weekly petroleum report on Wednesday is expected to include another modest boost in (2-5 million gallons) in weekly US ethanol production. A more pronounced gain is unlikely as gasoline use stays plateaued. Energy markets have rallied this week as vaccine trials show promise. International travel in the near-term will remain severely reduced. Chicago ethanol futures through December exist in a range of $1.08-1.12/gallon. The recent break in ethanol prices has pulled futures-based production margins into negative territory.
- Radar maps continue to show light/moderate rainfall working slowly across the western and central Corn Belt. This system will progress across IL and into IN in the next 24 hours. Accumulation of 0.25-0.50″ is expected.
- The midday GFS weather forecast is warmer and drier in the 11-15 day period as it allows strong high pressure ridging to expand into the far Southwestern Midwest. This will be followed but confidence in extended range forecasts remain low. Otherwise, output is similar to prior runs through the next 10 days. A pattern of active rainfall will persist across the E Plains, Midwest and mid-South into Aug 1. Cumulative totals of 1.00-1.75″ will blanket a majority of the Corn Belt. Relative warmth resumes early next week but damaging heat is not indicated.
- The need to find corn demand has lingered in the background throughout the growing season. With pollination occurring under largely favourable conditions, demand will play a more central role in price determination. Rallies in all major crop markets will be laboured without a major threat to yield in August or during harvest.