- We continue to see the trade focus on the huge line up of vessels in Brazilian ports with load times reportedly exceeding 60 days. Chinese soybean crush margins remain at, or close to, record levels which ensures steady demand for physical supplies, and shipping delays in S America sees continued switching to the USA where availability appears to astound us given the tightness of supply particularly going forward.
- The US weather in the Delta is a focal point right now as planting has started albeit in patchy conditions and possibly on the wet side. Overall it seems that soil moisture is adequate, possibly even encouraging, and current pace of field work is average.
- In Russia the southern grain regions are turning to unfavourably dry after a month long dry spell. If crops are to reach their full potential, a prolonged period of soaking rains is needed to relieve parched soil conditions. These conditions are to some extent mirrored in the East of Ukraine. January precipitation did assist conditions following a dry last quarter of 2012, but rain is needed – and right now!
- We have seen CBOT soybean prices decline somewhat as harvest progress is made in Brazil. Top producing state, Mato Grosso, is reported to be 75% complete, but logistic issues continue to plague the country as evidenced by the record vessel line up. We expect this situation to continue for at least the rest of March and possibly into April, which leaves the US under pressure to come up with supplies.