- CBOT markets have started the week in lacklustre style with only corn showing any sign of strength, but that evidence so far this week is minimal. Perhaps this is unsurprising ahead of Thursday’s stocks and seeding reports; predicting what will be reported has become a better spectator rather than participative sport these days. Trying to second guess what will be reported has not met with huge success so fat this year. That said, we do have a view, and we favour tightening stocks in soybeans and corn, which we have mentioned once or twice before!
- Seemingly the UK is not the only place to be impacted by snowfall this weekend, the US Plains and Midwest have also been the recipient of significant snowfall as well as extreme cold. Hardly classic spring weather and potentially cause for delays in both sowing and harvest which is hardly what the globally tight markets are needing right now.
- On a brighter note, at least the US drought which began last year and extended well into the winter has had some relief from rain and snowfall. The downside is that we will be looking at delayed seeding, potentially delayed harvest and the consequent extension of usage which will further stretch already stretched corn and soybean stocks. There appears little likelihood of a reduction in corn grind for ethanol because of mandated inclusion, and feeders (poultry in particular) have no current reason to ease back as prices remain subdued – for now. We remain vigilant for “triggers” which will change the current benign pricing scenario – maybe Thursday will bring one of them to the attention of the trade.