- Today sees a plethora of data releases, key items are listed below:
- Russia’s AgMin reports their 2013 grain crop at 90-92 million mt, which is a downgrade from their last estimated level of 90-95 million mt although an increase from last year’s 71 million mt.
- Argentina’s Rosario Grain Exchange (RGE) estimates the 2012/13 soybean crop at 48 million mt, which is unchanged from a month ago; their forecast for the corn crop is 25.3 million mt, which is a 200,000 mt reduction from last month’s estimate.
- Informa Economics released estimates as follows; the 2012/13 Argentine corn crop at 25.3 million mt, a 300,000 mt reduction mom, Brazil’s 2012/13 corn crop is estimated to be 71.95 million mt, a 350,000 mt increase mom, China’s 2013/14 corn crop is forecast at 213 million mt, an 8 million mt increase mom.
- Informa’s soybean estimates are for the 2012/13 Argentine crop to come in at 52 million mt, a 1 million mt increase mom; Brazil’s crop is seen at 83.25 million mt, a 1.25 million mt decrease mom.
- In the news today we read a number of reports of “bird flu” in China, to which a number of deaths (human) are attributed. In 2009 a global flu pandemic was predicted, based upon a similar bird flu strain, albeit the prediction did not materialise into reality. As a consequence we have seen a decline in soybean prices, initially on the Dalian exchange, on fears of reduced soybean meal consumption.
- EU grains have made gains and are now not too far below pre-Thursday report levels. News that EU crops (specifically UK, France and Germany) are three to four weeks behind normal, when placed into the context that EU wide stocks that are at just over three weeks consumption, makes for a fascinating potential market development. Add to the EU situation a potentially very tight Russian wheat supply, by which we understand potentially running out, the picture becomes doubly interesting and we will look with interest to see how this unfolds in coming weeks.
- The latest Russian wheat outlook looks to be challenging to say the least. Poor autumn establishment in dry conditions, followed by Oct-Dec sub normal precipitation led to the crop entering dormancy in poor condition. Improved winter rains have improved matters but possibly too late to see a full recovery and crop potential. Spring weather, specifically rainfall will be absolutely key in determining output for the region.