• The USA has released its weekly export figures as detailed below:

Wheat, 316,000 mt, which is below estimates of 350-800,000 mt
Corn, 387,300 mt, which is within estimates of 175-600,000 mt
Soybeans, 747,800 mt, which is above estimates of 200-700,000 mt
Soybean meal, 105,300 mt, which is within estimates of zero to 170,000 mt
Soybean oil, minus 4,600 mt, which is below estimates of zero to 15,000 mt

• A steadier US$ on account of heightened tensions over North Korean “warmongering” and “sabre rattling” has provided sufficient impetus to provide commodities with a slightly weaker tone during today. Added to some profit taking after yesterday’s wheat rally we are unsurprised at today’s price action.

• Brussels has granted another big week of exports licences, 538,000 mt bringing the season total to nearly 17.5 million mt. We remain 35% higher than this time last season amid prospects of delayed and possibly reduced harvest. Little wonder that wheat prices in both London and Paris are now all but unchanged on pre USDA report levels.

• It has been the soybean complex which has led downward momentum, perhaps with the “bird flu”  talk still prevalent in China as reports of another death from the new strain of virus leaves traders keen to exit long positions and pressure markets. Our view is that the “new” virus is likely to go the way of the last significant outbreak, and is unlikely to create a global flu pandemic, massive poultry cutbacks and the consequent fall in protein demand.

• Within the USA it appears that corn growers in the MidWest still have concerns over frozen ground and drought, whilst hard red wheat continues to be plagued by high plains drought. Temperatures are rising, as would be expected at this time of year, but it is possible that sowings could be delayed and output compromised as a result – early days!