- The USDA has today released its weekly export figures as detailed below:
Wheat; 339,500 mt, which is within estimates of 225,000 – 650,000 mt.
Corn; 475,900 mt, which is within estimates of 225,000 – 900,000 mt.
Soybeans; 383,700 mt, which is within estimates of 375,000 – 1 million mt.
Soybean meal; 234,600 mt, which is within estimates of 50,000 – 250,000 mt.
Soybean oil; 7,700 mt, which is within estimates of zero to 15,000 mt.
- The Chinese bird flu outbreak continues to rumble on with today’s headline reading nine dead out of 33 confirmed cases of the human variant. Further cases have been discovered in birds in a number of live bird markets in Eastern China although the details are scant as is often the case in China. Precautionary culls of birds have taken place in at least one of the markets affected although subsequent discoveries do not appear to have attracted the same measures, at least according to reports received so far.
- Wheat and corn markets have found some support in early trade as the freezing conditions, which we commented upon yesterday, continue to delay corn plantings and potentially damage wheat crops. Disappointingly, today’s US wheat export numbers did not match up to the upper end of expectations, and which could have reached the 1 million mt mark if the ideas that China purchased 14 to 16 cargoes actually materialised. Corn prices received a degree of support from the lower than anticipated stock figure reported yesterday.
- We pick upon news that growers are reluctant to sell given the ongoing low temperatures, potentially delaying and damaging crops, as well as a degree of belief that the numbers are “plain wrong”. Whilst we sympathise with their view, it must be remembered that “the market is never wrong”, buyers and sellers agree a price and trade, therefore it MUST be right. Many a trader has lost money believing he is right and the market is wrong!
- Whilst the US cold weather is currently in the headlines, the forecasts show that there is a change towards warmer conditions towards the end of the month. This is already evident across Northern Europe as night time temperatures remain above 0℃ (32℉) and daytime levels approach double digits (10℃/50℉). This will prove a blessing to growers who are waiting for warmer soil temperatures to boost germination and crop development in what can only be described as a late season so far.
- Brussels granted wheat export licences totalling 377,254 mt this week (the lowest weekly total since 1st January 2013), which brings the season total to 17.579 million mt, 4.824 million mt ahead of this time last year (plus 37.8%). If the season’s remaining weekly exports were to be exactly the same as last season, it would bring the annual export level up to 19.578 million mt, and interestingly we have only had one smaller week of exports, compared with last, since the beginning of December 2012 (which was the week of 26 February 2013, and that was 2,542 mt less than the prior year). Whatever happens in the remaining weeks we are heading for a big number; yesterday’s WASDE estimate for EU wheat exports was increased by 1 million mt to 20.5 million mt, so at least they seem on the ball with that number!
- On the subject of WASDE numbers, yesterday’s April EU end stocks figure was estimated at 0.5 million mt greater than a month ago at 10.04 million mt; principle reasons are due to 1.25 million mt greater beginning stocks, a reduction of 200,000 mt in production, a 0.5 million mt reduction in overall consumption together with the addition 1 million mt of exports. By way of comparison, Stratégie Grains wheat carryout figure was reduced in mid March from their February estimate by 200,000 mt to 10.7 million mt.