• HEADLINES: Chicago volatility remains extreme ahead of the weekend.

• Chicago grain and oilseed markets are in full retreat at midday. The Russians are not, and the invasion of Ukraine continues. This is contributing to intense Chicago price volatility ahead of the weekend. Wheat futures were the most bullish on Thursday; however, March Chicago wheat broke through $9.50 overnight and then turned down. At midday, wheat is off nearly $.77/bu. The break in wheat has pulled the rest of Chicago lower. Corn is down 30-35 cents at midday, and soybeans have been down as much as 67 cents.

• Uncertainty reigns through all aspects of international politics and trade, which is leading to extreme Chicago price volatility. So far today, March wheat has traded a $1.06 wide range, March soybeans have traded a wide 84 cent range, March corn has held a 47-cent range.

• In other US financial markets, crude oil has slipped under Thursday’s low and been close to $2/barrel lower near $91, gold futures are down more than $40/ounce at midday, while the US dollar index has retreated after trading to a 20-month high on Thursday.

• The weekly Export Sales report showed that US exporters booked 41 million bu of old crop corn sales last week, while weekly exports hit a marketing-year high of 74 million bu. Cumulative corn sales are now at 1,873 million bu versus 2,323 million last year.

• Old crop wheat sales were at a 4-week high of 19 million bu, and new crop sales were at a marketing-year high of 6 million bu. Cumulative old crop wheat commitments now total 661 million bu versus 866 million last year. Weekly exports of 20 million bu were the most since last August.

• Soybean export sales somewhat eased to 45 million bu, and weekly exports were at a 3-week high of 46 million bu. Cumulative sales now stand at 1,812 million bu versus 2,195 million last year.

• Soybean meal sales were below average at 255,575 short tons last week, while exports rose to a 9-week high and second largest of the year at 398,565 short tons. Cumulative exports are 104% of last year and the second largest on record, while outstanding sales are 109% of a year ago.

• The midday GFS 10-day weather forecast shows good rainfall amounts for the far southern tip of Brazil and into eastern Argentina. However, limited rains are scheduled for the majority of the Argentine crop-growing region, while Central Brazilian crop regions will remain dry. This will aid the ongoing Brazilian soybean harvest but remains a threat for much of the Argentine growing region.

• Volatility looks to remain extreme as the world grain markets try to determine what the Russian invasion means for world grain flows and price. S American soybean production continues to decline, with the market focus now on the later developing Argentine crop. We maintain a longer-term bullish outlook and we should be prepared for a prolonged period of extreme volatility.

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