- Key US crop data released last night showed the massive effort put in by farmers to reach a corn planted figure of 71%, which compares with 28% last week and a five year average of 79%. The “catch up” is impressive to say the least, and has had a degree of impact on prices which have dropped again today.
- Additional crop data showed soybean plantings at 24%, which compares with 6% last week and the five year average of 42%. Spring wheat numbers reached 67%, up from 43% last week and compares with the five year average of 76%. All in all this is an impressive performance from the farmer who has clearly worked very long and hard and is reaping the rewards for some big investment in state of the arty equipment to take advantage of the window which has materialised this week.
- On the other hand, winter wheat condition has declined once again with the proportion of the crop rated good/excellent dropping a point to 31%, which compares with 58% this time last year. The proportion rated as poor/very poor is 41%, up from 39% last week and only 14% last year.
- The news has been taken by the market as encouraging with virtually all prices displaying lower numbers at the close this evening.
- Reuters today reported a port workers strike in the key Argentine port of Rosario. Monday saw the stoppage over pay and the inevitable slowing of exports. Whilst this sort of interruption is not uncommon, it is anticipated to be short lived. The country has an inflation rate of some 25% which creates an “interesting” dynamic for the farmer – why sell crops for cash which is worth ¼ less in a year when you can hold the physical crop and maintain value over the same period. The key period for exports is right now as the US hits its low water mark in stocks pre 2013 harvest, it is therefore in the interests of the farmer and the nation to resume trade flows without undue delay.
- Stratégie Grains today reduced their outlook for soft wheat production in France, albeit slightly, to 36.141 million mt, the highest number since 2008. The weather conditions have, like the UK, been cold and wet leaving the crop in a delayed state amounting to some 7 to 10 days as opposed the UK’s estimated three week delay.
- As we have said previously, the weather is key to markets in coming weeks and pretty much everything we are looking at right now suggests that this remains the case.
- To download the latest crop progress report file in PDF format please click on the link below: