• HEADLINES: US March soybean/corn stocks bullish; Seedings as expected; Old crop to gain on new crop.

• The March 1 Stocks and Seeding Intentions Report was bullish for old crop corn, soybeans, and wheat. However, 2023 Seeding Intentions of US corn, soybeans and spring wheat came in close to expectations. Bull (old/new) spreads are expected to gain while the push will be on to own old crop soy/ corn is on as supplies decline into late summer. The US corn export program will be expanding due to recent Chinese demand while US soy crushers will be seeking cash soybeans to maximise profits on rising renewable diesel demand (soyoil) and soymeal export sales (sharp fall in Argentine soy crop).  It is now up to Mother Nature to determine if NASS corn/soy/spring wheat will be seeded.

• We calculate second quarter corn feed/residual use at 1,501 million bu, down 37 million from last year. WASDE is forecasting that US 2022/23 corn feed residual to be down 8% or 443 million bu from last year. Yet, the Q2 US corn feeding rate was down just 2%. WASDE needs to adjust their feed/residual use upwards by 100-150 million bu. The US is feeding more corn than forecast.

• US March 1 soybean stocks at 1,685 million bu are down 247 million bu from last year. The stocks were 70 million bu below trade estimates with the Q2 residual use calculated at -26 million bu. The residual argues that the 2022 US soybean crop was overstated. It will take the June report to corroborate, but the loss of 60-70 million bu of supply is bullish with old crop US soybean end stocks at just 210 million bu. WASDE will raise their residual use of 2022/23 soybeans to take old crop stocks even lower.

• US March 1 wheat end stocks were 946 million bu, down 83 million from last year which argues for a larger feeding rate. Although US wheat export data is near a 40 year low through mid-March, the wheat stocks total is supportive to price and argues that new crop weather for the W and N Plains will be important.

March 1 US Stocks (million bu)

2021        2022        2023

Corn            7,696        7,758        7,401

Soybeans         1,562        1,932        1,685

Wheat            1,311        1,029        946

• US 2023 total crop intentions were forecast at 318.1 million acres, up 6 million acres from last year, the largest seeding since 2019. North Dakota corn seeding was up 27% at 3.75 million acres. Illinois and Iowa corn seedings were up 200,000 acres each or 2%. The US corn seeding gains came from a host of Midwest States. 1 million from trade forecasts. This is the largest US corn seeding since 2021 at 93.3 million acres. The seedings will produce harvested acres of around 84 million acres.

• US soybean seedings were estimated at 87.5 million acres, the same as last year and the February Outlook Meeting forecast. US soybean seedings have held just above 87.0 million acres for the past 3 years.

• Total 2023 US wheat seeding rose to 49.9 million acres, up 4.2 million acres. US winter wheat seedings were up 13% at 37.5 million acres, up 2.5 million acres with another sizeable gain noted in durum seedings which was up 9% at 1.78 million acres. US other spring wheat seedings were down 2% from last year at 10.6 million acres. The total expansion of US all wheat acres was larger than expected.

US Planted Acre Intentions  (million acres)

2021        2022        2023

Corn            93.3        88.6        92.0

Soybeans         87.2        87.5        87.5

Wheat            46.7        45.7        49.9

• The USDA March 1 Stocks estimates are bullish, especially for soybeans, with new highs forecast this summer in Chicago futures. Cash soybean basis and premiums should lead the rally. Cash corn prices correctly indicated that US old crop corn stocks are much tighter than forecast with WASDE to raise its feed/residual use by at least 100-150 million bu in May. We do not see the 92 million acres of new crop corn as being bearish below $5.50 December futures. However, weather forecasts must indicate too wet or too cold weather to sustain a rally above $5.80. We maintain that rallies to $6.00-6.20 December on weather scares offer new sales opportunities. Soybeans will most likely gain on the grains.

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