• HEADLINES: NOPA report surprises on member soyoil stocks, lowest since October 2017; GFS weather forecast dry next week across the Central US; Wheat rises on massive Chicago short.

• Chicago futures are mixed at midday with wheat higher while corn/soybeans sag in thin volume trade. The weekend looks open and the harvest is rolling across the Central US, but farmers are not letting go of much new crop corn/soybean supply, outside of filling contracts on prior sales. Yields are variable with disappointment noted in IL/IA/KS/MN while better than expected yields are being reported in OH/IN. For the week, soybean prices are down around 13 cents, corn is down 5 cents, while Chicago wheat values are up 9 cents. The USDA report is behind the market, but traders are cautious about engaging in new length until Midwest corn/soybean yield trends are known. Seasonally, corn futures tend to bottom this week and soybeans next week. Cash soyoil bids stay strong on domestic demand and are trading at a 4.5-6.0 cent premium to October futures. Soyoil futures are weaker as soybeans sag. USDA/FAS did not report any new export sales this morning.

• Weather forecasters fear that the Australian drought will worsen into November amid the rapidly strengthening El Niño in the equatorial Pacific. Limited rain has fallen in September. WASDE has Australia exporting 19 million mt of wheat with a crop of 26 million mt in 2023/24. A year ago, Australia produced a wheat crop of nearly 40 million mt with exports of 32.5 million. The 2023/24 Aussie production and export drops of 14 million/13.5 million, respectively, are massive. They do not account for additional crop losses if the drought persists. The world exports an average of 17.25 million mt of wheat/month, so with an extension of the Aussie drought into October, Australian annual export losses could equal 1 month of world wheat trade. This is important and finding other suppliers to fill the void as seasonal winter weather considerations slow Russian wheat exports.

• NOPA members crushed 167.8 million bu of soybeans in August, just below the record and the lowest smallest monthly US crush rate in 11 months. The end of summer normally produces a diminished US crush as plants take seasonal downtime for maintenance ahead of the new crop harvest. Yet, the report surprise was the fall in US soyoil stocks to 1,250 million pounds, the smallest US monthly soyoil stock total since October 2017. The lower stocks argue for record large domestic demand during August and that biofuel consumption was well above food use during August. Analysts had expected that US soyoil stocks would decline to 1,49 million pounds, so the smaller stocks confirm the biofuel demand pull. As new plants come online before the end of the year, and US energy prices surge on tightening crude oil stocks, soyoil futures hold the best bullish story at the Chicago Exchange.

• The Midwest midday weather forecast is little changed with a line of showers to continue eastward across the E Midwest into the weekend, followed by limited Central US rain over the next 6 days. Thereafter a much wetter weather pattern unfolds across the Central US with near to above normal rainfall into early October. This rain should start a process of refilling the Mississippi River with repeated storms forecast.

• High temperatures will be in the 70’s and 80’s this weekend and rise back to the mid 70’s to the lower 90’s next week as a ridge of high pressure builds back across the region. Near to below temperatures follow during the last week of September. No Gulf Hurricane prospects are evident into September 25.

• NOPA August soyoil stocks of just 1,250 million pounds (lowest in 6 years) underscores the massive existing demand from the US biofuel industry. And just a third of the proposed renewable diesel plants are operational today! The EU is expected to allow the ban on Ukraine grain imports to expire, but this won’t stop several border countries from placing their own ban which conflicts with Brussels. US corn ethanol and soybean crush margins are the best in months.

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