- Markets started the week lower both sides of the pond with Paris wheat hitting contract lows and London finding its lowest level in 12 months. The advancing harvests inn Europe, with France estimated to be 30% done, have allowed cash premiums to decline as harvest selling pressure becomes more evident than has been the case in nearly two years. Black Sea regions were not as positive, the harvest in Russia is reported to be 40% complete and heavy rains have hampered progress in central western regions. Interestingly, strong domestic demand is supporting prices, which have remained broadly unchanged (basis FOB levels) despite sharp declines in US and European prices.
- Informa Economics released their latest estimated figures which showed some declines from numbers a month ago. Corn yield was estimated at 158.6 bu/acre vs. 160.0 bu/acre last month and is still above the USDA’s 156.5. Output at 14.14 billion bu is down from 14.259 billion bu a month ago, but still 190 million bu higher than the USDA”s latest estimate. Soybean yield was also reduced month on month, to 42.7 bu/acre from 43.9, and compares with the USDA forecast of 44.5 bu/acre. Overall output at 3.266 billion bu is down 110 million from the 3.376 billion bu last estimated a month ago. Total wheat output was estimated at 2.125 billion bu, slightly ahead of the last USDA figures as prospects for spring crops continue to look favourable.
- In the UK, according to the HGCA (Home Grown Cereals Authority), the two week late harvest in under way with some 10% of the winter barley and 5% winter rapeseed crops gathered in. Warmer and dryer conditions in late July have been beneficial for crop development, late grain filling being aided most. Crop stress from dry and hot conditions has been limited to crops on lighter land. Whilst the bulk of the crops are still a couple of weeks away from harvest, it appears that there are a few issues with some fields displaying poor weed control as a consequence of the wet autumn. Also in winter barley, secondary tillering in thin and patchy crops is a widespread issue, pre harvest treatment may well be required to resolve this.