- In the continuing roller coaster, which is the current CBOT market, we saw lower levels today with the soybean complex, corn and wheat all closing in the red.
- The ongoing Pro Framer Crop Tour has reported positively regarding Illinois corn yield with 170.5 bu/acre, well above last year’s figure and above the five year average of 148 bu/acre. We have been reminded that the three year average does, of course, include last year’s drought result and is therefore perhaps lower than would be considered “normal” but we maintain that it is statistically correct and therefore valid for comparative purposes.
- The State averaged a soybean pod count of 1,156, which is marginally below the three year average of 1,149 pods 3 foot by 3 foot test plot. One material point has emerged from the latest comments, and that is variability in crops is high. Seemingly there are adjacent plots with a high variance, one good and the other bad, which leaves some of the sampling data open to question and therefore the accuracy of the survey needs to be confirmed by actual harvest data.
- There has been some needed rainfall across some of the dry Midwest and this triggered long liquidation in a market which has displayed nervousness related to weather in recent trading sessions. A lasting pattern of rainfall is needed before we can consider the nervousness to be misplaced, and it appears we need to wait until September before this is likely.
- Brussels granted wheat export licences totalling 585,818 mt bringing the season total to 3.397 mt, which is more than double last season’s comparative figure of 1.653 million mt.
- The USDA has today released its weekly export figures as detailed below:
Wheat; 494,000 mt which is within estimates of 450,000-550,000 mt.
Corn; 492,600 mt which is below estimates of 725,000-975,000 mt.
Soybeans; 946,900 mt which is below estimates of 1,300,000-1,800,000 mt.
Soybean Meal; 176,700 mt which is within estimates of 150,000-300,000 mt.
Soybean Oil; 9,700 mt which is below estimates of 10,000 to 20,000 mt.
- We continue to keep our neck on the block and look for lower levels!