- What goes up must come down, or so it seemed this morning! Tuesday’s gains in soybean meal were retraced yesterday and again this morning, although late trade has seen the soybean complex back into positive territory; the grains have continued weak, and this has spilled over into European grain markets.
- Of interest is the level at which yesterday’s Egyptian purchase was made, the Black Sea seller’s level basis C&F was $7 below the US soft red wheat FOB level. This illustrated the disparity between origin offer at the present time, which will surely be rectified in time. The question will no doubt be, “Will Black Sea offers rise as availability is reduced, or will US prices fall to become more competitive?”
- Brussels has issued wheat export licences this week for 558,695 mt bringing the season total to 4.686 million mt, 2.3 million mt ahead of last seasons figure.
- The market remains nervous as weather forecasts vacillate between dry and wet and the USDA/WASE report looms ever closer next week with all it may bring with it. Within days we will see the FSA acreage report updating figures and shortly after we will see actual harvest results. It is only then that we will be able to judge what effect the weather conditions have actually had upon yields.
- Commodity broker, F C Stone, has released its latest crop estimate with a corn yield of 156.4 bu/acre giving an output of 13.942 billion bu, this compares with the USDA’s latest 154.4 bu/acre and 13.763 billion bu. Their soybean numbers came in at 41.2 bu/acre with output at 3.146 billion bu vs. USDA figures of 42.6 bu/acre and 3.255 billion bu. Bear in mind the USDA will update its numbers on 12th September. For comparison Allendale forecast corn at 153.4 bu/acre and soybeans at 39 bu/acre whilst a Reuters survey saw corn yield at 153.985 bu/acre.