- CBOT and EU prices have all displayed stronger tones throughout most of the day despite broker, F C Stone Intl, increasing its estimate for 2013 US corn output yesterday. Their forecast output now rests at 14.15 billion bu, an increase from 13.942 billion bu last month; yield is pegged at 158.7 bu/acre, up from last month’s 156.4 bu/acre. 2013 soybean output was also increased month on month to 3.163 billion bu from 3.146 billion bu. Yield was marginally increased to 41.4 bu/acre from 41.2 bu/acre. For comparison purposes, the latest USDA numbers are; corn 13.843 billion bu with a yield of 155.3 bu/acre, and soybeans 3.149 billion bu with yield at 41.2 bu/acre.
- Stratégie Grains have reported on the French corn harvest which is just getting under way, and have estimated output marginally down at 15.526 million mt, a decrease of 80,000 mt from a month ago based upon slight reductions in both acreage and yield. If achieved, output will be slightly behind last year’s output of 15.614 million mt.
- Reuters today announced that the USDA will not be issuing its usual weekly export sales data due to shutdowns in the Federal Government which Congress has yet to resolve. Others are questioning the timeliness (or otherwise) of the forthcoming October crop report – no doubt time will tell on that!
- In the UK DEFRA have released their latest update (Sep ’13 compared with May ’13) to 2012/13 grain balance sheets, which whilst academic in the historic sense, have a relevance insofar as they impact opening stock levels and therefore the 2013/14 balance sheet. For wheat commercial end stocks rose by 251,000 mt; this was a result of increased imports (407,000 mt) and a reduction in exports (63,000 mt) offset by increased domestic consumption (219,000 mt). Barley stocks also increased, but only by 43,000 mt leaving a combined additional grain stocks total close to 300,000 mt with which to start to 2013/14 season. Both empirical and anecdotal evidence shows that early season import volumes have remained elevated this season as millers looked to imports to ensure sufficiency of supply, particularly in the early part of the season. In the light of latest UK harvest estimates it would appear that the domestic S&D position is not as tight as was first feared.
- Brussels has granted another big week (the largest so far this season) of wheat export licences with 757,832 mt, which brings the season total to 7.228 million mt. This is an increase of 2.945 million mt over the same time last year (68.8%).
- Despite what is written above, real news continues to be noticeable by its absence! Global weather seems to be broadly favourable and early US harvest data continues to impress when compared with some of the earlier “gloom and doom”. One fact appears clear right now, and that is that the premium attributed to US wheat continues to grow and will no doubt ration exports to some extent.