- Today’s biggest news item has probably been the announcement by Argentina that their 8.8 million mt estimated wheat harvest figure, released only last Thursday, was an error and did not fully reflect the entire crop. They expect to release an updated estimate in coming days. Regrettably the lowballed figure created some upside momentum in wheat futures around the world, and today has seen some downside correction on the news. Estimates for the crop range widely with Argentina’s BAGE (Buenos Aires Grain Exchange) at 10.35 million mt, the IGC (International Grains Council) at 11 million mt and the USDA’s latest estimate at 12 million mt.
- The US harvest continues with cool and dry conditions forecast for the next week to ten days and only limited rainfall predicted.
- Stratégie Grains today published their first forecast of 2014/15 cereal acreages. Unsurprisingly, following the poor planting conditions of autumn 2012, their acreage estimates are increased year on year. 2013 planting conditions have been significantly better and fields we have seen show excellent seedbed preparation, good germination and early weed control; all of which bode well (at this time) for significant improvements in overall output. In summary 2014 wheat acres were estimated at 2.016 million ha, up from 1.626 million ha last year, 2014 total barley was estimated at 949,000 ha compared with the prior season’s 1.215 million ha, which was boosted by an increased spring acreage to fill land unplanted to wheat.