- Today marked (yet) another wheat tender by Egypt’s GASC who purchased only 60,000 mt for late Dec ’13 shipment, this time from France. It would appear that the one US offer, which was for late Jan ’14 shipment, could well have been “in the frame” price wise to the tune of nearly $3.50/mt on a C&F basis. Russian offers amounted to a big fat zero, one Romanian offer that seemed to be cheaper but it appears there was an issue over freight which precluded the confirmation of business. Otherwise there were a number of additional French offers all at higher levels.
- Markets started the day higher, wheat receiving support from the Egyptian tender and this position has been maintained throughout the day. The soybean complex has moved lower as we approach the close and markets shut for Thanksgiving. Traditionally we see markets bullish into this particular holiday and we could well be setting or have set a “top” from which prices decline in coming weeks.
- The S American weather outlook remains favourable and there is talk that some US soybean export sales are being cancelled (or washed out) or switched to Brazil as forward prices begin to reflect cheaper levels. Both Brazil and Argentina have received beneficial rains and temperatures in Argentina look to be moving towards normal and crop prospects continue to look good.
- The technical outlook for soybeans has reached an extremely interesting point; Jan ’14 prices moved up to $13.41 today, the upper end of the current price channel stands at $13.42¾ and represents strong resistance. Prices today closed $0.23 below today’s resistance and adds to our confidence level on this specific point. Recent buying has created the price rally which began at $12.47 and we would now hope to see follow through selling to prove the “top”. Clearly we will either be proved right (or not) in coming days and weeks.