- Today’s USDA report, the key information eagerly anticipated today, offered little in the way of either excitement or surprise. US export volume adjustments were made as expected and needed, and focus now turns to the key driver which will be S American weather and crop prospects, particularly size! The January report will now be looming large in everyone’s mind. It is difficult, if not impossible, to see sustained price rallies succeeding unless we see a dramatic change in weather conditions in S America.
- One key factor is that the USDA failed to alter Chinese corn imports despite the MIR 162 issue which has not (yet) gone away. Cargo rejections continue and it has been rumoured today (as we suggested at the weekend) that aggressive DDG testing for MIR 162 is now underway. It is only a question of time before the strain is found. There is speculation that approval may be granted by the end of Q1 2014, obviously there is no confirmation of this at the present time.
- Brazil’s CONAB today raised its 2013/14 soybean output forecast to a record breaking 90.03 million mt and at the same time increased corn output to 78.8 million mt.Their estimate for the wheat crop was also raised by 11% to 5.36 million mt. “Favourable weather”, unsurprisingly, was claimed to be the key factor in the marked improvements across all crops.
- To download today’s USDA report summary as a PDF file please click on the link below: