19 December 2013

  • We saw lower levels for much of yesterday, particularly is soybeans and meal, as liquidation continued although later on the market turned a touch firmer as support was found in some short covering and profit taking. One thing was clear, and that is the overall lack of direction which seemed to underpin trading and highlighted any real market news or information upon which direction could be found.
  • In corn the market rallied a touch on short covering triggered by better than anticipated export demand. Wheat trade was mixed but ended slightly lower once again; exports were above estimates and news that Australia and Canada may have even higher output all added to pressure.
  • Brussels issued wheat export licences amounting to 840,137 mt, which brings the sea on to 14.029 million mt. This is just over 4 million mt (40%) ahead of last year’s volume at this stage of the season. This level of exports adds further validity to a season total in the order of 26 to 28 million mt.
  • US weekly export figures were announced as follows:

Wheat; 659,100 mt, which is above estimates of 300,000-400,000 mt.
Corn; 872,200 mt, which is above estimates of 550,000-750,000 mt.
Soybeans; 495,800 mt, which is below estimates of 700,000-900,000 mt.
Soybean meal; 77,100 mt, which is below estimates of 150,000-300,000 mt.
Soybean oil; 27,000 mt which is within estimates of 10,000-30,000 mt.

  • Soybean and meal export levels were both well below expectations and are potentially reflecting not only the time of year, but also a concern that cancellations will begin to appear as the Brazilian harvest approaches. Any recent S American weather concerns which were lending support in recent days appear to have evaporated and we do not see much in the way of bullish input in coming weeks.